WP4 - Disease risk and vulnerability mapping

Lead beneficiary: SMHI

This WP operates at the nexus between WPs 2 (historical disease drivers), 3 (disease dynamics and modelling) and 5 (decision-support systems).

Objectives:

• An ensemble of future climate projections, based on realistic scenarios and at resolutions appropriate for disease transmission modelling and effective risk/vulnerability mapping
• Projections of future changes in surface water extent and duration, based on surface hydrology models forced by, and consistent with, the ensemble of future climate states
• Scenarios of future changes in socio-economic conditions and land-use
• Assessment of spatial variations in future risks of, and vulnerability to, disease morbidity and related impacts (including economic impacts)

Tasks:

Task 4.1 Identification of current vulnerability hotspots for the 3 target diseases

Task 4.2 Assessment and provision of downscaled climate change projections for the study region from past and ongoing projects

Task 4.3 Provision of land-use change scenarios

Task 4.4 Provision of socio-economic change scenarios

Task 4.5 High resolution regional climate projections for eastern Africa study area

Task 4.6 Risk and vulnerability mapping of disease morbidity and related impacts

The products developed in WP4 have the potential to be up-scaled beyond the study area.